Spend Signals for Q4: Consumer Demands to Shape Your Strategy

As businesses step into Q4 2025, one thing is clear: every payout has the power to go further.  Every dollar you allocate to motivate employees, engage customers, or reward gig workers carries more weight in the final quarter of the year. The challenge? Consumer preferences are evolving fast, and only businesses that align their strategies with these shifts will see outsized returns.

In this blog, we’ll unpack the latest spending trends shaping Q4 2025 - from retail and e-commerce growth to the rising demand for flexibility, wellness, and instant access to funds. You’ll gain actionable insights to help you design reward and incentive programs that not only delight recipients but also drive measurable growth.

At Runa, this is exactly where we focus: helping businesses make every payout more powerful. With the right data, strategy, and technology, Q4 rewards can move beyond transactions and become growth levers for the year ahead.

The Spending Landscape: Growth, Shifts, and Surprises

This holiday season, consumer spending will be both resilient and dynamic. According to the National Retail Federation, U.S. retail sales are expected to rise between 2.7% and 3.7%, reaching up to $5.48 trillion - a steady pace that matches pre-pandemic growth averages. Globally, retail will push past $35 trillion, with e-commerce alone set to top $6.8 trillion, accounting for one-fifth of total retail sales.

But the story isn’t just about scale. It’s about where consumers are directing their spend:

• Experiences over things. 58% would rather spend on experiences than physical goods, shaping demand for categories like travel, entertainment, and dining.
  
  
• Essentials stay strong. Groceries are projected to become the largest e-commerce category by 2026, with durable goods also seeing continued momentum at nearly 5% annual growth.
  
  
• Wellness on the rise. The global wellness economy is growing at 7.3% annually, far outpacing global GDP, as consumers invest more in health and lifestyle.
  
  
• Recreation rebounds. The recreation market will hit $1.72 trillion in 2025, growing at a CAGR of 5.2%.
  
  
• Resurgence of restaurants. Restaurant gift cards make up 20% of the entire gift card market, proving that dining remains one of the most magnetic ways to connect with consumers.
  
  
• Fuel and mobility gains traction. The global market for fuel and gas cards is projected to soar to $2.8 trillion by 2032, reflecting sustained consumer demand for flexible, practical categories.

For businesses designing reward and incentive programs, the lesson is clear: people want options that reflect the realities of their daily lives - whether that’s essentials, lifestyle upgrades, or shareable experiences. Make sure that you have a range of different gift card categories baked into your program. 

Implications for Payouts and Incentives

The way people want to receive and spend their rewards is evolving, and forward-looking companies are adapting:

• For HR leaders: Incentives tied to flexibility are winning. Nearly 50% of employees prefer using gift and prepaid cards for necessities. At the same time, 74% of employees said they would join a gift card program promoting healthy lifestyle changes. Wellness, essentials, and experiences are no longer “perks” - they’re expectations.
  
  
• For loyalty programs: Micro-redemptions are shifting the loyalty landscape. Consumers increasingly want to use points as cash at checkout, and AI-powered personalization is driving higher engagement. With 91% of companies running loyalty programs, differentiation hinges on offering rewards that resonate in the moment.
  
  
• For gig platforms and the flexible workforce: Instant access to earnings is a critical differentiator. Gig workers consistently rank speed of payout as a top priority. Leveraging solutions like Runa Pay to Card can be the deciding factor in attracting and retaining talent during peak season.

Setting the Pace for Q4 Growth

Q4 is more than just another quarter - it’s the moment when incentives, rewards, and disbursements can supercharge growth. 

The businesses that thrive in Q4 2025 won’t just keep pace with consumer spending shifts - they’ll get ahead of them. By aligning your payout strategy with how people want to spend, you can transform rewards into real drivers of growth.

At Runa, we’re committed to helping you get there. Whether you’re scaling global loyalty programs, powering gig economy payouts, or designing HR incentives that resonate, our technology and expertise are built to maximize every disbursement.

This Q4, don’t just reward - ignite growth. Let’s make every payout count.